Round depth
1.46×
This pot: 1.46× an average round (68% luck).
Calculator
The four numbers that describe the current round — depth, rarity, share price, and expected wait — from live pool data, plus a what-if calculator. Scorekeeping, never a forecast.
⛏ Pot Math
the four numbers that describe this round — scorekeeping, not forecasting
Round rarity
23%
~23% of rounds get this deep — about 1 in 4. Normal.
Share price
1,150 sats/G
Pays ~1,150 sats per G of banked work right now (subsidy only).
Expected wait
59d 7h
At 105.80 PH/s live, ~59d to a block (1D avg 107.84 PH/s → ~58d).
W 184.79T work since last block ·
D 126.23T needed → 126.23T next retarget ·
H 105.80 PH/s live · 1D 107.84 · 6D 139.98 · 9D 195.30 PH/s
The key & formulas
- W — total work since the last block (T). Resets to 0 when the pool finds a block.
- D — minimum needed diff = network difficulty (T).
- H — pool hashrate (PH/s): live gauge, plus 1D/6D/9D averages.
- Round depth = W ÷ D = 184.79 ÷ 126.23 = 1.46×
- Round rarity = e−W/D = 23% (~1 in 4)
- Share price = 212,500 ÷ W(T) = 1,150 sats/G (subsidy only)
- Work / block = D · 2³² ÷ 86,400 ÷ 10¹⁵ = 6,275 PHd
- Expected wait = (Work / block) ÷ H = 59d 7h @ 105.80 PH/s
Want to run your own numbers? Open the calculator below · look up live pool stats →
Where this pot sits 📏
Round depth = W / D = 1.46×. Rarity = e−W/D = 23% — the share of average rounds that run at least this deep. The marker is this pot right now.
← shallower (found quick) · deeper (overdue) → markers show the depth at which only 50 / 23 / 10 / 5% of rounds run this long.
These numbers are SCOREKEEPING, not forecasting. Mining is memoryless: the pot being deep does not make the next block more likely. Anyone saying "we're due" is describing the past, not the future.
🧮 Open the calculator — run your own what-if numbers
Pot Math — this round
Enter the pot's work (W), network difficulty (D), and pool hashrate (H) — today's live values are prefilled. Then drop in your own banked work this round to see your cut if the pot cracked right now.
W — work since last block (T)
D — minimum needed diff (T)
H — pool hashrate (PH/s)
Your work this round (T)
Round depth
–
W / D
Round rarity
–
P(round ≥ W) = e^(−W/D)
Share price
–
212,500 / W · subsidy only
Expected wait
–
at H
💰 Your stake in this pot
–
enter your work this round (T) to see your cut
Rental strategy & odds
How much hash, for how long, at what cost — and what are your real odds? Live hashprice: 49,801 sats/PHd.
Hashrate (PH/s)
Duration (hours)
…or budget (sats)
…or work directly (PHd)
What you get
Work
–
PHd of shares
Cost @ live hashprice
–
sats
🥑 10T share (Bravocado)
–
P(≥1) · 1 per 500 PHd
🏠 21T share (homeminers)
–
P(≥1) · 1 per 1050 PHd
🎰 Block
–
P(≥1) · 1 per 6300 PHd @127T
Best diff (expected)
–
~1–1.5× total work
Steady vs moonshot
Your odds depend only on total PHd — not on how you buy it. A slow-and-steady order and a short moonshot of the same PHd have identical expected odds. The difference is variance: the moonshot swings harder (bigger chance of nothing, bigger chance of a monster), steady grinds toward the average. "It's all about total hashes."
The KMH 48-hour rule
On Kiss My Hash, orders of 48h or more lock in your price and delivered hash; under 48h you take whatever the market gives ("pray"). Parasite's Refinery is pay-as-you-go either way. Duration doesn't change your odds for a given PHd — it changes cost certainty. Set duration ≥ 48h above to see the lock-in flag.
P(≥1 hit in W PHd) = 1 − e−W/rate. Long-run probabilities, not promises. Not financial advice.
The luck audit 🔬
The claim to beat: one 10T+ share is expected per ~500 PHd of pool work, everywhere, at every hour.
If any hour-of-day / day-of-week bucket sustainedly beats that, there's a method — and it'll glow below. Expectation is a flat, boring ~100%.
Share quality by hour × weekday (UTC)
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | |
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Colour = average best-difficulty-per-hashrate in that bucket, relative to the global mean. below · ~expected · above (a signal) · low sample.
Totals
Samples analysed
591
Pool work observed
2.7k PHd
Expected 10T hits
5.4
at 1-in-500 PHd
Sample is getting meaningful. A truly flat map is the honest, expected result; a persistent bright cell would be the interesting one.
Method & caveats: best-diff-since-block is cumulative within a pot cycle, so this is a proxy, not a per-share hit count. It surfaces a sustained hour/day bias if one exists, not its absence. Judge the trend, not a single cell. Not financial advice.
W = "Total Work Since Last Block" and D = "Minimum Needed Diff" (network difficulty), both in T — exactly as labelled on parasite.space. Because W and D share a unit, depth is just their ratio. W resets to 0 the moment the pool finds a block. Share price excludes transaction fees (subsidy only).
data fresh · pool last ok 1s ago